'The housing crisis is not a construction problem, but a coordination problem'

After the 2024 Housing Summit, the government launched a multi-million dollar plan to accelerate housing construction. A year and a half later, two program leaders are sounding the alarm: "If we do not succeed, more housing factories will perish and production will fall further."

Sebastiaan Hameleers and Nicole Maarsen are closely involved in what is known as the Program for Innovation Scaling Up Residential Construction. "The I-O-Peee, with the emphasis on the Peee," Maarsen emphasizes, "so not I-on."

More than a year after its launch, on the eve of a plenary debate in the Lower House on the housing task, the two take stock at the Jaarbeurs's Pleyn restaurant, where the recordings of the weekly podcast Bureau Stoer take place.

What exactly is the IOP?
"The idea stems from the 2024 Housing Summit. There it was noted that we must fully commit to digitalization and industrial and conceptual housing construction in order to achieve 100,000 housing units per year. So the IOP is about accelerating housing construction, industrialization and standardization."

You've been on the road for more than a year now. How is it going?
Maarsen: "I found the first year a little frustrating. I thought we'll just get on with it. Public-private. With policy and practice, and multiple ministries. It seemed very simple to me. Innovation and scaling up, who doesn't want that? But getting all those people, opinions and interests on board is quite complex..."

Hameleers: "Several things have already been set in motion, though. For example, the EKV will be legally enshrined by 2028."

The EKV?
"That's a permit we can issue in just one day for factory housing. Every factory will soon be able to get a type or system approval or even better; a quality declaration. With that, there is no need to re-license every project."

You get that permit in a day. Why doesn't that law go into effect for another 1.5 years?
"Because a law change takes at least 1.5 years, so I'm already cautiously optimistic about that. And then it's 'only' a law. After that, people (read civil servants, ed) have to start embracing it and experience that it makes their work more enjoyable."

The IOP focuses primarily on shortening the planning phase, which now averages between 8 and 12 years. Why
Hameleers. "Because the housing crisis is not a construction problem, but a coordination problem. Technical implementation capacity is not the problem..."

What goes fundamentally wrong in that preparation phase?
"The planning phase is organized sequentially. In other words, we do everything in an analogous order... In an area development, we make beautiful plans, but if anything goes wrong, you're back to square one. That costs tons of time and we have to organize it differently..."

... "It's like those old-fashioned Christmas tree lights. All it takes is one bulb to fail and you have no light at all."

Isn't it also a matter of "we can't live in bullshit?"
"It's a coordination problem. The collaborations around housing projects are too compartmentalized and fragmented. As a result, we can no longer make decisions. Only with digitization can we break through this complex problem. We must all ensure a digital backbone that cuts across all the institutions and core departments involved, in such a way that we can make really good deliberations."

Many housing factories are now running at half speed. How can that problem be tackled?
"The government is thinking about area-specific investments. You could make it a condition that you only pay out subsidies if you are serious about digital and industrial building as an initiator... Now those factories are largely empty. But we should cherish those factories, if only because of the fact that the sector is aging and we need to keep labor productivity and capacity high."

Is the housing market crisis the result of government failure?
"It is the failure of an organizing principle. The government has an important role in that, but so does the market."

Is the market still confident?
Hameleers: "Certainly, but we can't wait too long anymore. There is a risk lurking around housing factories that banks, investors and shareholders will stop liking it and drop out. So we will have to give industrial logic a place in housing, project development and the plan chain."

What if the IOP fails?
Hameleers: "Then at least we have done our best to make a complex system better. But it is a public-private program. That makes me optimistic."

Maarsen: ... "What if it fails? That would be very bad. Then more factories will fail and housing production will fall even further."

Curious about the entire interview? Listen Bureau Tough.